Need 80 more closed trades. At ~15/day, ready in ~6 days.
Composite score + heuristic
Awaiting 80 trades
No resolved baseline contracts yet
Feature importance appears after the ML model trains
How the new model works
The system now extracts 30+ features for every contract opportunity (time to resolution, price momentum, volume, wallet behavior, category type, etc.) and stores them as a snapshot with each paper trade. Once 80 closed trades accumulate feature snapshots, a LightGBM gradient boosting model trains automatically using walk-forward cross-validation. It predicts P(WIN) directly from features, replacing the old heuristic. The model retrains weekly as new data arrives. If the ML model can't beat the "always bet NO > 0.80" baseline after 200+ trades, the honest conclusion is there's no exploitable edge.
What changed from v1
Stop-loss disabled for contracts resolving within 7 days (they're binary outcomes — let them resolve). Entry prefers contracts resolving within 48 hours (fastest learning feedback). Weight oscillation stopped (frozen). Scoring threshold tiered: 70 for < 2 days, 75 for < 7 days, 80 for longer. Factor weights no longer retrain daily — the ML model replaces them entirely once it activates.